Coinbase Prediction Markets
Event contracts inside the Coinbase app, operated by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, and bought with settled USD or USDC.
Security record: 1 incident · 1 own fault · 1 refund pending- Offered through Coinbase Financial Markets, a CFTC-registered futures commission merchant and NFA member
- Markets are operated by Kalshi, which sets final results from the source named in each market rules
- Contracts are bought with settled USD or USDC
- Open 24/7 except Thursdays 3 AM to 5 AM ET and maintenance windows
- The order confirmation shows a fee breakdown before you buy
We score a market only when its rewards, taker fee and volume are confirmed. How we score
- Volume a day
- $547M
- Open interest
- $2.2B
- Volume 9.2
- Average a day: $1M is a 1, $1B is a 10, on a log scale. Under $100K a day the whole score stops at 5.
- Safety 10.0
- Coinbase Financial Markets is CFTC-registered; Kalshi runs the markets
- Ease 10.0
- Inside the Coinbase app, paid from your USD or USDC, sports to politics
- Open interest 10.0
- $1M is a 1, $1B is a 10, on a log scale.
- Access 2.0
- US residents only, with SSN or TIN and an application review
- Sign in to Coinbase with an account that has your US address and SSN or TIN
- Select Predictions, choose Get started and complete the application
- Fund your USD or USDC balance
- Pick a market and read its outcome rules
- Enter an amount, choose Yes or No and select Buy
Available to US residents only, excluding Nevada and Michigan; if you move out of the US, open contracts are liquidated. Access depends on a suitability review and each market has a contract limit. Coinbase cannot override outcomes set by Kalshi, and the settlement value can differ from the price shown in the app.
1 incident · 1 own fault · 1 refund pending
Past incidents 1
Bribed support agents leaked customer data. Criminals bribed overseas support contractors to copy data on under 1% of monthly users (about 69,000 people), including names, addresses and some ID images, then demanded a $20M ransom on May 11. Coinbase refused, offered a $20M bounty and estimated costs at $180M to $400M including voluntary reimbursement of customers scammed with the data. Coinbase pledged to reimburse customers tricked into sending funds; no final confirmation of amounts paid found. https://www.coinbase.com/blog/protecting-our-customers-standing-up-to-extortionists
Own faultRefund promised
Sources: coinbase.com, techcrunch.com, theregister.com
From the project’s statements and security coverage. Own fault means the project’s code, servers or keys; third party means a vendor, registrar, oracle or issuer it relies on.
